CullmanTimes.com, Cullman, Alabama

Agriculture

February 28, 2006

Some worry about virus mutating, causing pandemic

By Evan Belanger

As the state gears up to face a what some are claiming will be a plague of epic proportions, experts and media professionals seem to be pointing to avian flu as the most likely culprit for the world's next pandemic.

This is because a particular strain of the virus known as H5N1 seems to be extremely deadly and extremely pathogenic in birds.

According to the Center for Disease Control, avian flu occurs naturally in the intestines of birds, but usually does not make them sick. H5N1 on the other hand affects multiple organ systems in the birds, achieving mortality rates in flocks of 90 to 100 percent.

While the CDC reports that the risk of infection in humans is low, confirmed cases of the virus in humans have been found as far back as 1997. The infection usually results from having "direct or close contact" with infected birds or their excretions.

Since humans have not historically been exposed to the illness, they have few immunities to deal with infection, thus more than half of those infected died, according to the CDC.

These numbers may be exaggerated since it is possible that only the most severely ill people are being reported.

To date, the disease has not been observed spreading from human to human, nor has it been documented to spread from eating cooked bird products.

If H5N1 were to adapt in a way that it could spread from human to human, the CDC reports that a pandemic would likely result.

Some scientists fear that a person infected with a human form of influenza will come in contact with an avian version. They say the result could be a mutated form that spreads easily between humans and for which they have no immunities.

In the 20th century, there have been three outbreaks classified as pandemics.

The first, the Spanish Flu of 1918 resulted when soldiers returning from World War I carried the disease home as hostilities ended.

In the U.S. the disease killed approximately 500,000 people.

In 1957, according to the CDC, the Asian Flu pandemic began, killing about 69,800 people in the U.S.

The last pandemic occurred in 1968 with the Hong Kong Flu. While it made a resurgence in the early '70s, the disease was fairly mild in comparison compared to previous pandemics. In the U.S. 33,800 people died between September 1968 and March 1969, according to the CDC.

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